U.S. Financial Crisis: NOT A “Shock” To Our System
Think the U.S. economy has gone to the dogs? You may be more right than you thought. A Wednesday, August 27 L.A. Times article explains why consumer confidence is sinking to a 40-year low, via a science experiment involving -- well -- two obedient canines. Here’s the gist:
What Does A Contracting Triangle In Soybeans Mean For You?
A lot can happen in a week, especially in the commodities markets.
That's why Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy writes the Daily Futures Junctures Weekly Wrap-up each Friday. Jeffrey uses these updates to review and post forecast charts for every major commodity market. He also records a video update which allows him to talk about each one of his charts in depth.
By way of example, here's an excerpt of last Friday's update, with Jeffrey discussing what the week's action in Soybeans means for the future:
Video: How Do You Pick Best Stocks and Sectors?
The question “How do I pick the best stock?” is as old as the stock market itself. You’ve probably heard about a method or two, and you may already be using them – maybe even successfully. Watch this free 7-minute video and learn a new tip from an industry expert.
Crude Oil: A “Gut-wrenching, Volatile, Fear-laden” Move Ahead
The energy in-crowd spends more time watching changes in climate patterns than Al Gore. Their main goal: Spot “bullish” storm activity in oil producing regions that could damage supply and therefore, spark a rise in prices. Problem is, hurricane activity means hooey to oil's overall trend...
When Will the Media Get It? Someone Did Foresee the Credit Crisis
It’s no surprise homeowners felt invincible; they'd been told to feel that way every day. The mainstream media – the group who believes they're supposed to question authority for the good of John Q. Public – got caught with their pants down. Government agencies appeared equally inept – or at least unwilling to confront the problem. But there were a select few who not only knew, but were ready and waiting.
Currency Traders: Free Elliott Wave Forecasts, 36 Hrs Left
Whenever I talk about how to use the Elliott Wave Principle in forex trading, I always spend the majority of the time talking about the price patterns R.N. Elliott provided us with over seventy years ago. Those patterns are the heart and soul of the Wave Principle. But more and more I'm asked prematurely about Fibonacci relationships. Here are some thoughts on that... (EWI's Currency Specialty Service FreeWeek continues through noon on August 27. Keep reading for details.)
Currency Traders: Free Elliott Wave Forecasts, 36 Hrs Left
Whenever I talk about how to use the Elliott Wave Principle in forex trading, I always spend the majority of the time talking about the price patterns R.N. Elliott provided us with over seventy years ago. Those patterns are the heart and soul of the Wave Principle. But more and more I'm asked prematurely about Fibonacci relationships. Here are some thoughts on that... (EWI's Currency Specialty Service FreeWeek continues through noon on August 27. Keep reading for details.)
Commodities Go Kerplunk: Why Are Prices Falling?
It’s official: The five-year long Commodity boom has gone from white-hot to white-not. To wit: since the start of July 2008, the futures markets have seen more jaw-dropping free falls than the Beijing Olympics diving competition...
Mr. Hull's Giant
In the summer of 1868, Mr. George Hull of Binghamton, New York, decided to pull off a hoax. He had a gypsum block carved into the shape of a giant dead man, buried at a farm near Cardiff, New York -- and then later, he had it dug up. Thousands of people flocked to pay and see "Mr. Hull’s giant." And here we are, 140 years later...
How are Wave Analysis, Dow Theory and Fibonacci Related?
To begin to understand the Elliott Wave Principle, it's a good idea to get to know how R. N. Elliott discovered it. Read Bob Prechter explaining how it all began.
Sweet Opportunity In Cocoa
If financial markets are well-oiled machines that react mechanically to outside events, it stands to reason -- If you master the system, there’s no way to go wrong. In actuality, the story is quite different, as the recent action in COCOA makes plain...
The Best Time To Read Prechter’s Perspective Is Right NOW
For those interested in seeing how the Wave Principle enabled Bob to anticipate the current wave of economic turmoil befalling the United States, Prechter’s Perspective outlines the following forecasts:
Scary Thought: A Bear Market That Lasts Forever?
By claiming that there is a "negative loop between the financial system and the broader economy," the International Monetary Fund is essentially saying that we will be stuck in this bear market forever – literally. Think about it...
Diagnosis: Soybeans
If you have watched a few episodes of the hit TV series House, you know there is a specific formula for each episode. The gifted but fiercely independent doctor must find the answer to a medical mystery before the show's end — a total of 43 minutes. However, until that time, Dr. House and his team make any number of right and wrong moves, yet each one serves to reach the final, correct diagnosis.
An Elliott Wave technician's job works much the same way: not every Wave Count unfolds as expected. Yet even if you get off track, a mistaken forecast can still reveal the bigger story, as new facts flow in from the market.
Conquer the Crash Delivered Today's News in 2002
The truly remarkable part of the story is how early he saw them. Bob described the ways that many dominoes would fall before some of them were even set up. His earlier book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was published in 1995, while Conquer the Crash was in 2002. This was years before the gathering storm became obvious to “Dr. Doom,” (the New York Times’ name for economist Nouriel Roubini) who described parts of the bursting bubble in 2006.
Currency Traders: Get Elliott Wave Forex Forecasts Free
At Elliott Wave International, we have been forecasting the markets for 30 years. We can help you understand how the markets work and teach you a popular forecasting method that may help you formulate a trading strategy: Elliott wave analysis. It's a method many traders use, because it helps you to accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and know when the trend is likely over. And you're in luck! Because from noon to noon on August 20 through August 27, you can have full, free access to Elliott Wave International's forex forecasts. Click for details.
The Fall Line-up Preview (In Commodities)
It's late summer, which means a boring TV schedule with nothing but reruns. If you're a Law & Order or CSI type, you might be longing for some good courtroom drama right now. Look no further than the August issue of Monthly Futures Junctures: Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is the expert on the witness stand and you, the jury, learn the answers to the commodity market's toughest questions.
Why Are Oil Prices Falling? (Video)
Now that oil has taken a 25% dive off that peak (in less than a month!), people are asking – why is the price falling, and so fast? And that's a very good question. Did the global demand for oil suddenly take a u-turn? Is there peace in the Middle East? Have speculators shifted their attention to other markets? Watch this free video for an Elliott wave perspective.
There's a Big Reason To Keep Your Eye on Silver
There's a Big Reason To Keep Your Eye on Silver
Watching a market like silver rise or fall dramatically does take the breath away.Yet Bob Prechter has explained why silver's moves are important not only to investors and traders but also to the U.S. economy as a whole.
Will Tonight Be A Historic Night for Silver?
EWI Senior Metals Analyst Mike Drakulich published the following urgent message to his Metals Specialty Service subscribers at 8:57 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, Aug. 14. Since then, he has added multiple chart-filled intraday updates, including detailed near-term forecasts for gold and silver.
EURUSD: How To Know The Trend BEFORE The News
The U.S. dollar rallied strongly against the euro in intraday trading on August 14, pushing the exchange rate down to $1.4780 – the level the rate hasn't seen since February. What's behind such a persistent show of strength on the dollar's part? As usual, it depends on whom you ask. Here is an elliott wave perspective...
Gold at $801 (Video): Why Is Price Falling?
On August 12, gold and silver hit the lows they've not seen in almost a year: Gold dropped to a low of $801 an ounce in the intraday trading, and silver fell towards $14. Why? Watch this free video for an Elliott wave perspective.
Emerging Markets: Still The "Safe Havens?"
Surely you've heard opinions that even if the stock markets in the U.S. and other developed countries experienced "a correction," the emerging markets would be just fine. Well, here we are. It's August 2008, a little over a year into the global liquidity crisis. China's Shanghai Composite stock index is down 50% from its all-time high; India's BSE SENSEX is down about 40%; and Russia's RTS is down over 30%. Why?
test test test
It's mid-August, which means the kids will soon be back in school. If you recall any of your returning days to class, perhaps the memory is how smooth and easy it was, with little schoolwork beyond a simple quiz. But the markets only take off on weekends and federal holidays -- so an investor shouldn't find the Pop Quiz question in the headline too demanding, especially since we'll provide the answer now, to wit: After a five-wave impulse move (in either direction) come a three wave corrective move. Bonus points if you also know the expected Fibonacci retracement multiple. Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has identified the end of a lengthy five-wave move in a certain commodity, and the opportunity that comes with it. This market, which has declined almost 29% over the past six weeks, is "set for a sizable corrective advance." Ever the careful instructor, Jeffrey stresses that "While we do have some very exciting potential in [this market] for now, or at least until we have confirming price action, it remains just that: 'potential.' The only thing that can confirm a wave count is price action, nothing else." Jeffrey is also following a key technical indicator that likewise suggests a change in trend, and he spells out the key parameters this market must satisfy in the next few days to confirm the uptrend.
Pop Quiz: What Comes After A Five-Wave Impulse Move?
It's mid-August, which means the kids will soon be back in school. If you recall any of your returning days to class, perhaps the memory is how smooth and easy it was, with little schoolwork beyond a simple quiz. But the markets only take off on weekends and federal holidays -- so an investor shouldn't find the Pop Quiz question in the headline too demanding, especially since we'll provide the answer now, to wit: After a five-wave impulse move (in either direction) come a three wave corrective move.
U.S. Dollar Is Coming Alive -- But For How Long?
From August 4 to August 8, the U.S. Dollar wiped the floor with its currency counterparts in a head-spinning performance it's being called the “watershed week” for the long-suffering buck.Yet in all the hullabaloo, the mainstream media failed to notice one major detail: namely, there was absolutely no “fundamental” reason for the dollar’s climb.
10 Things You Should and Should Not Do in This Bear Market
With chapter titles like “Should You Invest in … Bonds, Real Estate, Precious Metals, Collectibles, Cash,” Robert Prechter’s New York Times best seller, Conquer the Crash, is the ultimate “How To Do,” “What To Do” and “Should You Do” guide for investors.
Why Phi? August 14 Marks the Golden Mean
As the unofficial governing body that oversees the celebration of Phi Day, we here at Elliott Wave International have a bit of a conundrum on our hands. Should Phi Day be 6-18 or 8-14? We can explain.
U.S. Economy's Mascot: Grizzly Bear
08.08.08: The long-awaited Summer FINANCIAL Olympic Games has begun. Hosted by the August 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, this event showcases the world’s leading economic athletes as they compete in the race toward opportunity. Here are just a few of the event’s most show-stopping details:
"Skirmish," "Invasion," and/or "War" Between Russia and Georgia
The erupting conflict between Russia and the Republic of Georgia in South Ossetia can safely be described as an unscheduled news event: Initial news reports of the fighting ranged from "armed skirmish" to "invasion" to "war." Some news stories tried to offer a context to Friday's fighting, saying it represents the culmination of years of tension between Russia and Georgia. While the tension has indeed been long-standing, this still begs the question: Why is the "culmination" unfolding now?
European Credit Crisis: Disaffirmation
It’s bad already. And it’s getting worse. Still, there are many who just don’t – or won’t – get it. The latter group is usually filled with politicians, too engaged in denial to fully grasp the fiscal and deflationary implications of this credit crisis.
Slaying the Many-Headed Monster in Coffee
One of the biggest flaws of fundamental analysis is its tendency to present a multitude of outside factors for a given market --- All of which have conflicting implications. Case in point: The bullish, bearish, bullish, bearish news items regarding the Coffee market. Read the full story...
Why “Conquer The Crash” Is More Relevant Today Than Ever Before
Suppose that all the conventional financial wisdom you've ever heard was written onto a large chalkboard -- and then someone gave you an eraser, a box of chalk, and the knowledge of how financial markets really work. That may be the kind of vision you'd have after reading Bob Prechter’s best selling book “Conquer The Crash.”
Two Grains Of Wheat In Two Barrels Of Chaff
When it comes to foolishness, Shakespeare always gets straight to the point -- which brings to mind the work it usually takes to get the point of most financial media "analysis," because it's so often overwhelmed by useless chaff. And sadly, wheat is no exception
Elliott Wave: Narrow Down Your Options
Fact: you never know for sure what kind of Elliott wave structure you're dealing with until it's complete. That's a sobering fact for many Elliott wave beginners. They often expect to count perfect five and three-wave structures in charts all the way down to milliseconds. But you just can't. For one, it has to do with the limitations of your data feed. But even if your data were perfect, some ambiguity with real-time wave counts would still remain. Here's how you handle that...
Real Estate and "Phone Book Guys"
In the U.S, they have become as ubiquitous as hotdog street vendors, or a McDonald's at every highway exit – lawyer ads on the back of the phone book. In the age of Blackberries, phone books aren’t what they used to be, and those back-cover ads are unbelievably expensive. Yet, with the lawsuit now pending by the state of New York against Swiss bank UBS AG, those phone book lawyer guys are likely to get a whole lot busier...
The Mortgage and Credit Crisis in the United States
Many people think the Fed has “saved” Fannie and Freddie, and the FDIC will “save” all depositors from the effects of the mortgage and credit crisis in the United States. Most people hope the crisis is just another temporary interruption in the “normal” bull market, and a return to the status quo is just around the corner.
Why 'Bye, Bye Bears' Means Just the Opposite
In fact, a hopeful viewpoint that the market bottom is in displays exactly what bear markets bring out in investors – the hope that things will turn around just after the next market dip. This behavior is analogous to investors worrying at the beginning of a bear market, behavior that famously has been shortened into the adage, "bull markets climb a Wall of Worry."
Russia: The Bear Growls
Today, the Russian RTSI Index took its biggest hit since January 21. It is now down almost 22% from its May 19 high. The surly social mood is steadily worsening, much as we predicted in our November 2007 Global Market Perspective Special Report, Sizing up a Superpower: A Socionomic Study of Russia. The report begins like this: “Our long-term Elliott wave count for the Russian stock market indicates that a major top is imminent.”
VIDEO: Why Oil Prices Change -- Part I
Question: A militant attack on the Nigerian oil station happened on Sunday, May 4. The report projecting strong demand for oil from China came out on Tuesday, May 6. However, EWI's Energy Specialty Service made a bullish forecast for oil last Friday, May 2. How in the world did ESS know about those events two days in advance? Answer: It didn't...
Hint to Putin & Chavez: Markets Are Key to Your Popularity
Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez, needn't have waited for vote returns; all they really needed to do was double-check how their nations' stock markets did over the past few months. Then they could have known the outcomes in advance of the vote counts. Why?
A Family Portrait of Financial Mania
I write from the catbird seat here at EWI, with access to the best technical market analysis in the world. In the space of an hour I can read forecasts of commodities, currencies, stocks, metals, and interest rates, and compare them to socionomic observations of news and events. Nowhere else can you grab such a broad, detailed snapshot of the clockworks of the “engine of history.” Today’s digital snapshot is a family photo of a resurging financial mania.
